Using Emotional Markers' Frequencies in Stock Market ARMAX-GARCH Model

We analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by adding information about public mood expressed in Twitter posts. To estimate public mood, we analysed frequencies of 175 emotional markers words, emoticons, acronyms and abbreviations in more than two billion tweets collected via Twitter API over a period from 13.02.2013 to 22.04.2015. We explored the Granger causality relations between stock market returns of S&P500, DJIA, Apple, Google, Facebook, Pfizer and Exxon Mobil and emotional markers frequencies. We found that 17 emotional markers out of 175 are Granger causes of changes in returns without reverse effect. These frequencies were tested by Bayes Information Criteria to determine whether they provide additional information to the baseline ARMAX-GARCH model. We found Twitter data can provide additional information and managed to improve prediction as compared to a model based solely on emotional markers.